2012-13 District Assignments

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Like the majority of high school football fans across the state, we at Kpreps waited anxiously for the announcements of new classifications and district assignments to come out in the past couple of weeks. 

Now that we’ve had some time to review the new assignments, we’ve done some number crunching to determine which districts in each classification for the 2012 and 2013 season will be the strongest and weakest based on the winning percentages of the schools involved.

This doesn’t mean that these districts will be the most or least competitive in 2012 and 2013, or that we guarantee the state champion will come out of these districts. But only that if recent performance is indicative of future outcomes, then these districts should be the most or least competitive.

Below, we categorize the best and worst of the new districts in each classification based solely on the combined winning percentage of the constituent schools from the 2004 season through Week 5 of this season. Schools that have undergone recent consolidations were accounted for using only their records after the new consolidated school was formed.

Let’s start in Class 6A where some notable changes include the return of the Hutchinson Salthawks after Randy Dreiling’s team spent the past four years in Class 5A. 

Hutch last left the state’s largest classification on top in winning the 2007 6A title 37-14 over Olathe South. That victory gave the Salthawks their fourth consecutive 6A state championship. Hutchinson would go on to win two more titles in Class 5A (2008 & 2009) before falling to Bishop Carroll in the state semifinals last season. 

Also new to 6A is the Gardner-Edgerton Trailblazers led by Coach Marvin Diener. Since 2004, Gardner-Edgerton has won nearly 70 percent of its games in Class 5A thanks to one of the state’s best athletes in recent memory in Bubba Starling.

Best District:  

These two districts’ combined winning percentage over the past seven and one-half seasons is essentially identical. It’s really no surprise that the district with the six-time state champion has the best winning percentage. Hutchinson has gone 87-8 over the past seven and one-half seasons which is good for tops in the new Class 6A; but district four is equally impressive with powerful Olathe North, Gardner-Edgerton, and Olathe South. 

While Lawrence Free State and Lawrence have been solid since 2004, Wyandotte and Leavenworth have combined to go just 20-117 with only one playoff appearance during that time. 

While perhaps most notable to 5A is the teams that left the classification, it will be interesting to see the development of the programs at news schools Goddard-Eisenhower and Blue Valley Southwest. Eisenhower will open its door sin 2012, while Blue Valley Southwest is already in its second season of football competition. The Timberwolves are 1-5 this season after finishing 3-7 a year ago and losing in the first round of the 4A playoffs.

Also of note is the division amongst the most southern schools in the Kansas City metro area. The past two years, 5A District 4 has been loaded with traditionally strong programs in Blue Valley – Stilwell, Pittsburg, Gardner-Edgerton, and St. Thomas Aquinas. Blue Valley and Pittsburg are the holdovers from the last cycle, while Gardner-Edgerton moved up to 6A and Aquinas was slotted in District 3 with Bishop Miege. 

The aforementioned District 4 is the tops on paper as far as winning percentage. Blue Valley has won 76 percent of its games since the beginning of the 2004 season, including state championships in 2010 and 2006. Pittsburg has won 67 percent of its games during that time, but hasn’t made the playoffs since 2007. Finally, Blue Valley West has won 58 percent of its games during that stretch, including the 5A state title back in 2007.

 

Only three of the new districts (Districts 1, 5, & 6) are made up of teams with a combined losing record since the beginning of the 2004 season. District 1 is the only new district in Class 5A whose teams have a combined winning percentage of less than .400. Keep in mind that these four schools play in the tough Centennial League during the regular season. Seaman and Shawnee Heights have had some playoff success, but Topeka West and Highland Park have only 11 wins each over the past seven and one-half seasons.

 

Two of the most talked about classification changes since they were released last week have been the addition of McPherson and Wichita Collegiate to Class 4A. They each are coming from different classifications, but many believe that these two traditional powers will have an immediate playoff impact beginning next fall. 

 

In terms of winning percentage only over the past seven and one-half seasons, 4A District 9 is the toughest district in any classification. These four schools have combined to win 229 games against only 100 losses for a winning percentage of .696 during that time. Obviously it helps to have two of the state’s best programs so close in proximity. Topeka Hayden has gone 82-13 (.863) since the 2003 season; second only to Holton which has gone 84-10 (.894). Hayden has two state titles and Holton one during that time.

District 3 is the only 4A district with a combined winning percentage of less than .400 since the start of the 2004 season. Only De Soto (39-35, .527) has posted a winning record of the teams in this district during that time. St. James Academy is only in its fifth year of football competition, while Bonner Springs and Spring Hill have really struggled.

 

The eastern half of Class 3A appears to have received some strength on classification day as traditional power St. Mary’s Colgan became one of the classification’s smallest members. Colgan has posted an 85-10 record since the end of the 2003 season; second among 3A schools listed in the 2012-13 classifications. Only Silver Lake has produced a better record during that time, having won an astounding 90 percent of its games in going 91-10. For Colgan to maintain the level of playoff success that they are accustomed to, the Panthers will have to challenge the status quo that has become Silver Lake and Rossville in the eastern half of 3A.

Colgan’s success is well-documented, but the rise of fellow CNC programs at Galena and Riverton has been impressive. The Galena Bulldogs under Coach Beau Sarwinski have won 76 percent of their games since the beginning of the 2004 season. It still should be noted that the separation of Silver Lake and Rossville in to different districts probably allowed District 8 to capture the top billing in this analysis.

Before Friday night, Leon-Bluestem had won just once in the schools previous 68 games. On Friday, the Lions posted a 29-0 shutout of another member of this new district, Wichita Independent. Given those two program’s struggles, it’s easy to see how District 10 is the only in 3A under a .400 winning percentage. Sedgwick has built a solid program over the past couple of seasons, but has been pinned in a district with Garden Plain, Hutchinson Trinity, and Halstead.

The Smith Center Redmen return to the classification they dominated from 2004 through 2009. During those six years, the Redmen went an incredible 79-1 and won five consecutive 2-1A state titles before suffering their only loss to Centralia in overtime of the 2009 title game. After a brief return to Class 3A, Smith Center will move back down in 2012 and try to return to that same level of dominance in a dwindling classification that continues to lose teams.

Ellis, Oakley, and St. Francis provide the strength to this district, although the Railers and Indians are just 1-4 through Week 5 of this season. Oakley, on the other hand, has gone 70-14 since the beginning of the 2004 season, and is off to a 5-1 start this year. 

·         District 3 (East) (.299) – (Chase County, Herington, Northern Heights, Onaga, Wabaunsee)

District 3 is the only in the state of any classification with a combined winning percentage of its teams of less than .300 over the past seven and one-half season. Only Northern Heights (37-34; .521) has posted a winning record during that time. These five teams have combined for 13 winless or one-win seasons since 2003. 

 

The 8-Man classifications continue to post solid numbers as dwindling participation and population forces schools to abandon the 11-man game. Larger districts means the second season continues to start earlier and earlier each year for the small school classes. In the recent past, schools like Quinter, Hill City, and Osborne have dropped down from the 11-man ranks to find immediate success in 8-man. A school to watch for in the next cycle could be Uniontown, which will drop to 8-man from Class 3A in 2012.

District 5 is only one of three whose teams combined to be above .500 over the past seven and one-half seasons. The strength of this district is Pretty Prairie which has posted a 61-17 during that time. Central Plains was formed in 2011 from the consolidation of Claflin and Quivira Heights, but only the Oilers 2011 record was factored into this analysis. 

Only Marmaton Valley and St. Paul have posted a winning record since the 2004 season in this newly created district. Pleasanton, Uniontown, and Yates Center have all made the transition down from 11-man in recent years. Yates Center has gone just 4-64 since the beginning of the 2004 season.

 

The 8-Man classifications have been dominated by Twin Valley League schools Baileyville B&B and Hanover in recent years, so any district that includes both of those schools will be considered loaded. Thus far in the 2011 season, however, a few contenders have emerged making Division II to be one of the most competitive classes in the state. B&B and Hanover are still in the mix, but other really strong contenders such as Thunder Ridge, Otis-Bison, Ashland, Hope, and Moscow are emerging to challenge the Falcons and Wildcats.

As mentioned above, any district with B&B and Hanover is likely to be considered among the toughest as the two schools have combined for four state titles in the past seven years. District 1 is one of only two new districts for 2012-13 whose teams have combined to be above .500 since the beginning of the 2004 season. The only other is District 7, which is aided by Victoria’s great run in this class and Otis-Bison’s recent rise to relevance. 

District 5 for next year includes only three teams which have posted a winning record over the past seven and one-half seasons. In just its fourth season, Thunder Ridge has won 74 percent of its games, while Beloit St. John’s-Tipton has also enjoyed success in winning 63 percent of its games. Teams like Northern Valley, Logan, and Stockton have really struggled in recent years, although Northern Valley has already won four games this season.